Working model v5.7 · built 28 October 2026

Rail Towns

An integrated housing and transport model for the Greater Dublin Region

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8 towns 4 towns 3 towns 3 towns 2 towns Heuston Connolly Sallins / Naas Maynooth Enfield Malahide Skerries Drogheda Swords Dún Laoghaire Airport Navan Dunshaughlin City centre: the tunnel Heuston St Stephen's Green Pearse Spencer Dock Connolly Heuston to Spencer Dock, 7.8 km, five stations Through-running tunnel, 7.8 km Rail lines (committed, incl. Navan) MetroLink New DART town: 15,000 homes, to scale Schematic. Towns are 800 m station catchments at map scale; positions are indicative town sites near stations.

What decides the answer

Twelve settings decide the answer. Each shows the value in effect; choose another to pin it and the outputs on the right recompute. The small label says where the central value comes from. Everything else in the model is further down the page.

What moves the gap most

Each setting above at its other values, one at a time, relative to the current settings: the change in the transport capital gap (Road Towns minus Rail Towns), in € bn.

The rest of the model

Everything below is the model itself: every step of railway in each plan, and every input with its source. Change anything and the outputs recompute; pinned values are listed under the outputs.

The investment ladder

Every step of railway in each plan. Choose a step to see its cost, the peak seats it adds and its source, and to switch it in or out of any plan. Bundle 6 is the committed railway plus the NTA's 2018 no-tunnel package.

Trains per hour by section

DART-class peak trains an hour on each section of the network, read from the same inputs and ladder steps as the seat counts above. Switch a step in or out and the table follows.

Every input

All the model's inputs, grouped by its own sections, with their Low, Central and High values, the value now in effect and the source note. Expert edit lets you pin any Central value; an edited row is marked and listed as unsourced.

Progress Ireland · progressireland.org · Working model v5.7 (24 Oct 2026, at Seán’s request: Rail Towns builds at most 25 towns at once, and its towns keep building after 2050 to 2055, each option only as fast as its own towns build (at central Rail Towns’ trains are full in 2055), ledger #110; v5.6 (23 Oct 2026, at Seán’s request: Rail Towns pays for the Northern turnbacks and signalling its own trains need; the riders who use rail in both options valued for frequency, reach and through running; 10 extra minutes on a car commute in the congested base network; the tunnel’s 10-car step at its full estimate; at most 20 towns building at once at the Low band, ledger #109; v5.5 23 Oct 2026, at Seán’s request: Rail Towns builds towns on every seat its trains leave empty, with no ceiling on towns building at once, and runs 10-car trains that it buys and runs; Road Towns and Bundle 6 keep their programmes, ledger #108; v5.4 22 Oct 2026, at Seán’s request: Road Towns builds 150 km of new motorway and the rest of its traffic congests, ledger #105; congestion valued at €0.25 a car-km, #106; the tunnel’s fleet on one through-running service, #104; the fixes of a third Codex review, among them a priced east-side turnback, the tunnel’s 10-car step less the cars its fleet rows buy and the regional cities’ roads restored, #107; v5.3 22 Oct 2026, at Seán’s request: no urban road tunnels in Dublin, ledger #100; land use on a matched rail premium, each pair led by the transport-only NPV, #101; the fixes of two Codex reviews, among them Rail Towns v Bundle 6 as the two options against Road Towns differenced line by line, #102 and #103; v5.2 20 Oct 2026: the Navan line’s 2050 forecast is no longer grown twice, at Seán’s request, ledger #97; v5.1 14 Oct 2026: the ventilation shafts and 26 tph back in at Seán’s request, ledger #95; v5.0 6 Oct 2026: Seán’s decided basis — the September fisk profile with the continuous road curve, the 20 tph ventilation design, the trip-rate cap, the committed Wicklow DART, four sourced recheck fixes and leg M car times on one basis, all now the default; v4.4 the September fisk: sixteen work packages of corrections as switches, each off by default, and one fisk profile, 27 Sep 2026; v4.3 three IAE ideas as switches and a Northern inner ceiling, 27 Sep 2026; the Bundle 6 stress test v4.2, 22 Sep; Option 3 Bundle 6 v4.1, 17 Sep; Stage 1 port of v3.12 capital / v3.13 CBA, 11 Sep 2026). Every number here can change as inputs are sourced; the honesty ledger in the project records each change. How the model is built · Download the workbook (xlsx) · Copy a link to these settings